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» SME Special His description of the influence of inflation on currency rates left me confused for a few reasons. Inflation was generally believed to be a good thing until about 1965 (if you owe people money, it decreases the real value of the amount you owe - those of us in debt probably wouldn't mind a little inflation - provided we have adjusted our lifestyle to lower our costs). In fact, the recent rapid inflation in home prices was pretty positive for the economy (until it was unsustainable). So if you read any texts that are older (say, Keynes) you have to remember that they had a fundamentally different view of good and bad (generally the better economists try not to pass value judgements). Mr. Cofnas says that inflation is the enemy of central banks, so I'm immediately suspicious. Inflation is a term that describes the rate at which the currency changes value as measured against goods. A little inflation is believed to be good (particularly in a growing economy) because it stimulates spending. He seems to admit this later when he notes that most central banks have inflation targets, and they are not zero. The opposite of inflation is deflation, which can be very bad in a market economy, because it exerts pressure on people not to spend, therefore adding deflationary pressure creating a real problem for the economy (this is one of the things that probably contributed to the great depression in the 1930's). Mr. Cofnas states that increases in inflation in a coutry are positive for the currency. However, I'm guessing that this is only true if the underlying strength of the currency remains somewhat stable (people are coming into the currency for higher rates). Otherwise, wouldn't currency traders flock to one of the currencies that have %1,000+ inflation per year? Of course not, the currency is losing value compared to other currencies faster than investments that can be made in the currency are gaining value.
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Barbosa, R., Belo, O.: Algorithmic Trading Using Intelligent Agents. In: Proceedings of the 2008 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2008)Google Scholar Look out for These Forex Trading Scams
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